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Economic slowdown sees support for FF drop by 4 per cent
Sunday, September 21, 2008 By Richard Colwell
The Progressive Democrats manage a relatively strong showing just as they bow out of Irish politics.

Some might say that the summer recess has not been kind to Fianna Fáil, dominated as it has been by the fallout from the Lisbon Treaty rejection and the economic slowdown. Both have put tremendous pressure on Taoiseach Brian Cowen.

Today’s Sunday Business Post/Red C tracking poll is the first measure of just how much impact these factors have had on party support since our last survey, immediately after the Lisbon defeat.

The poll’s main finding is that Fianna Fáil’s support has suffered during the summer, with a significant 4 per cent decline since June. This is despite the fact that the poll was taken at the same time as the party’s conference, which has been seen in the past to give a party some sort of bounce in support.

Given that Fianna Fáil did not appear to suffer any negative impact on its share of the first preference vote immediately after the Lisbon Treaty defeat, it does suggest that this decline is perhaps more to do with concerns over the economy than anything else.

This analysis is reinforced by the somewhat damaging finding from the poll that exactly half the electorate now does not have confidence in the government to manage the public finances in the current downturn, with over a third (36 per cent) of those who voted for Fianna Fáil at the last election also holding this view.

Our analysis of why voters returned Fianna Fáil to power at the last general election suggested that one of the main reasons was the desire for a ‘‘safe pair of hands’’ to look after the economy. The apparent shift in attitude seen in this poll - to a more negative image of the party with regard to the economy - must therefore be of particular concern for the party strategists, with local and European elections on the horizon.

Fine Gael has been making a concerted effort to ensure that blame for the current economic situation is levelled squarely at Brian Cowen’s door, and this appears to have worked well for the party. The party sees gains of 3 per cent in first preference support since June 2008. After three months of declining share, this gain will be warmly welcomed by the party, and constitutes something of a reprieve for party leader Enda Kenny, who has been under pressure from sections of the media over the summer break.

Labour, on the other hand, will be disappointed to see support for the party fall below the 10 per cent level it has held at for the last three polls. In today’s poll, it manages to secure just 9 per cent of the vote, so hasn’t benefited at all in the same manner as Fine Gael.

Sinn Féin, which appeared to garner support for being the only political party to oppose the Lisbon Treaty, also see their share fall back in today’s poll. It also secures 9 per cent of the first preference vote, down by 1 per cent on the level of support it secured immediately after the Lisbon Treaty referendum.

This is still relatively positive for the party, as it had 7 per cent share at the last election, and thus it appears it has done well out of their stance during the Lisbon referendum.

It has been a difficult week for the Progressive Democrats, with the party finally deciding to wind up last Wednesday night. In the circumstances, it will be a bittersweet pill for the party to see its best level of support for a long time in today’s poll.

The PDs secure 3 per cent of the first preference vote, the same as at the last election but which hadn’t been reached by them in polling since then. The gains are perhaps on the back of the heavy media coverage the party had last week, or maybe this was PD supporters’ way of showing they care - just a little too late!

The Green Party secures 7 per cent of the first preference vote in today’s poll, meaning the party has maintained its share over the summer. In this regard, the Greens will be pleased that they do not appear to have suffered in the same manner as their government partner, Fianna Fáil.

This is perhaps because their positions on the cabinet do not directly relate to the running of the economy, and also perhaps because the problem in voters’ minds lies with what occurred before this coalition came to power.

Gains in support are also seen for independent candidates in today’s poll. In total, 8 per cent of the electorate say they would give their first preference vote to independent candidates, an increase of 2 per cent since June.

This is a trend often seen midway between elections, as people become unsure of who they will vote for, and default to independent candidates. However the poll results will be welcomed by those independent candidates currently in the Dáil, as it helps them to fight for their agenda to be heard.

So what should Fianna Fáil do in the early budget, not only to combat the worsening economic situation, but also to halt the decline in support for the party? Using a wide range of questions, we aimed to find out the opinions of the electorate on how they feel the government should act.

Three-fifths (60 per cent) believe the government should do something to stimulate the housing market. Those most in favour of this action include those in the 18-34 year old age groups and also those based more in the suburban sprawl around Dublin. Just over half (52 per cent) believe there should be an immediate public sector pay freeze, even if this leads to strikes, with those in older age groups and based outside Dublin more likely to hold this view.

When asked about taxes, three-fifths (62 per cent) state that they would be prepared to pay more taxes rather than see cuts in the health and education budgets. This view is more strongly held voters over 45 years of age, perhaps as they are more likely to need the health services in the future, and can also afford the tax increases more than younger voters.

Conversely, a similar proportion (61 per cent), believe that government should cut public spending, rather than increase taxes. This view tends to be held by those in slightly younger age groups, those in more downmarket social class groups and those living outside Dublin. Overall, the similar support for both questions on tax and spend appears to suggest the public want spending on the core services of health and education protected, but aren’t prepared to pay more for other services.

In summary, today’s poll puts more pressure on the government’s early budget to succeed. As much as dealing with the financial situation itself, the budget also needs to reassure its supporters that they can once again trust the party to manage the economy in the current downturn.

Richard Colwell is managing director of Red C

How polls are conducted
Red C uses a telephone approach for political polling, as it has been found worldwide to provide a more representative sample than a face-to-face approach when conducting political opinion polls.

Isn’t a telephone survey less representative?
Telephone surveys have been shown to be less biased than face-to-face surveys, when analysed by political analysts for the stringent needs of political polling. The main reason is that the telephone interviewer has no control over who they interview.

They could be calling an apartment or a mansion. This makes respondent selection truly random. To ensure the sample is totally representative, we use an approach called random digit dialling (RDD) to create a random database of telephone numbers. By doing this, we are able to ensure we reach all telephone households, including those that are ex-directory.

What about problems contacting those people who only have a mobile phone?
In side-by-side tests, the fact that you have only a mobile has not been shown significantly to affect your opinion.

Even so, with 20 per cent of the population now only contactable through their mobile, Red C took the decision before the last general election to contact half of our sample of 1,000 adults aged 18 and over using a mobile RDD phone sample.

The other half were reached using a landline RDD sample. Data is then weighted to known demographic and phone type data.

This ensures we reach those who have only a landline and those who have only a mobile, as well as those who use both, which means our sample now reaches 98 per cent of the population.

Quotas are then set on demographics such as age, sex, social class and region to ensure that the people we speak to are representative of all adults aged 18 and over, based on the latest census statistics.

The final data is then also weighted to these demographic parameters as a final check, to ensure the sample is entirely representative.

How can it be accurate when only 1,000 people are interviewed?
The sample used, of 1,000+ adults aged 18 and over, is the recognised sample required by polling organisations for ensuring accuracy on political voting intention surveys.

The accuracy level is estimated to be approximately plus or minus 3 per cent on any given result, at 95 per cent confidence levels.

In all respects, our surveys are thus conducted within the ESOMAR (European Society for Opinion and Marketing Research) guidelines for political and opinion polling.

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